Gambler's Fallacy Surgery

Text on the meme

Doctor: "Sir, the surgery has a 50% survival rate, but don't worry, my last 20 patients have all survived" Nooo gambler's fallacy hot hands fallacy probability doesn't change you can't just think you are going to have a successful surgery I'll live I'll live

What it means

A doctor reassures a patient that surgery is safe because the previous 20 patients survived, confusing independent probability with the gambler's fallacy and hot-hand fallacy. The bell-curve meme shows both extreme “I'll live” reactions, mocking irrational confidence in a successful outcome. EN: A doctor reassures a patient that surgery is safe because the previous 20 patients survived, confusing independent probability with the gambler's fallacy and hot-hand fallacy. The bell-curve meme shows both extreme “I'll live” reactions, mocking irrational confidence in a successful outcome.

Objects

doctor drawing / рисунок врача patient drawing / рисунок пациента hooded figure / фигура в капюшоне bell curve / колоколообразная кривая probability graph / график вероятности surgery / операция medical glasses / медицинские очки hoodie / худи survival percentage / процент выживаемости red score labels / красные отметки шкалы