Predictive Model Misses the Point

OUR ACCURATE PREDICTION MODEL SAYS THAT YOU WILL DIE WITHIN 5 YEARS OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE ACTUALLY, YOUR RISK IS ONLY 5%, BUT A 4% RISK THRESHOLD MAXIMIZED PREDICTIVE PERFORMANCE

A doctor explains a predictive model to a concerned patient, first presenting a frightening five-year cardiovascular death prediction and then admitting that the patient’s actual risk is only 5%. The joke mocks models optimized for predictive performance that communicate statistical thresholds in a misleading or alarmist way, making it useful as a reaction to technically correct but practically absurd reasoning.

• @ithueti / 7705 2022-09-14