Bayesian Epistemology Swan

BAYESIAN EPISTEMOLOGY P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A) / P(B) P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A) / P(B) CAUSE EFFECT P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A) / P(B) A P(A) P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A) / P(B)

A four-panel cartoon shows a person entering a hospital, a clinician pointing from “CAUSE” to “EFFECT,” a doctor and patient discussing probability, and a black swan lying on a hospital bed. The joke combines Bayesian probability notation with the famous black swan problem: even when reasoning about causes and evidence, reality can produce an unexpected observation that disrupts the model. EN: A four-panel cartoon shows a person entering a hospital, a clinician pointing from “CAUSE” to “EFFECT,” a doctor and patient discussing probability, and a black swan lying on a hospital bed. The joke combines Bayesian probability notation with the famous black swan problem: even when reasoning about causes and evidence, reality can produce an unexpected observation that disrupts the model.

• @profunctor_io / 3544 2019-11-28